BoC took out insurance in Jan; may wait now, then cut again
The Bank of Canada's (BoC's) rate decision will be on 4 March (10:00 ET). The BoC unexpectedly cut its overnight lending rate (-25bps to 0.75%) in January, which it justified as "insurance" against the oil-price shock, a…
The Bank of Canada's (BoC's) rate decision will be on 4 March (10:00 ET).
The BoC unexpectedly cut its overnight lending rate (-25bps to 0.75%) in January, which it justified as "insurance" against the oil-price shock, a mostly negative development for Canada's economy.
Oil prices have stabilised somewhat since then, and the latest speech by Governor Poloz was slightly hawkish. Standard Chartered Research notes:
We expect the BoC to stay on hold, although this remains a close call. If so, the statement is likely to be dovish.
Money markets are pricing in c.8bps of a cut; only 5 analysts out of 22 polled by Bloomberg expect a 25bps cut.
We think the next rate cut will be driven by data deterioration, which will likely be more obvious in coming weeks.
A weak Q4 GDP print on 3 March poses the risk that the BoC may decide not to wait to ease policy.
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data dampened hopes for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, bolstering the dollar. Spot gold slipped 0.1% to $2,686.32 an ounce, while F…
On-chain data shows BTC whales moved 10000 BTC from Crypto exchanges. This indicate accumulation of BTC by whales. Japanese public company Metaplanet buys another 1 billion yen worth of Bitcoin. According to Santiment, t…
Personal income increased by 0.2% month over month In August, which was less than the 0.4% market forecast and less than the 0.3% growth in July. For the third consecutive month, real personal disposable income increased…
