Brazil’s estimated deforestation in the Legal Amazon fell 41.8% in the year through July, according to preliminary satellite data, as rising fires and an Oct. 25 presidential runoff put forest policy back in focus.
The National Institute for Space Research (INPE) said 3,335 square kilometers were cleared from Aug. 1, 2025, through July 31, 2026. It called the estimate the lowest annual rate in a satellite series that began in 1988. The prior period’s consolidated rate was 5,731 square kilometers; the earlier low was 4,571 square kilometers in 2012.
The latest figure uses priority satellite images. INPE expects to calculate a consolidated rate from full image coverage in the first half of 2027. Because the measurement period ended in July, the fires reported since September are outside it.
Starting in September, NASA observed more smoke and fire activity in the Amazon’s central and eastern regions. The agency linked the risk to drought accompanying El Niño and said some fires lit for land management escaped into forest. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gave an 83% chance of a historically strong El Niño during October-December 2026. NASA said researchers had seen a similar tropical fire pattern during the 2015-16 El Niño and in 2023.
Douglas Morton, an Earth system scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, said researchers were seeing “the second domino in the cascade fall.” In Manaus, city officials said municipal school activities would remain suspended Oct. 13 because air quality was critical. INPE says fire damage does not necessarily qualify as deforestation; its system counts progressive degradation when canopy loss accompanies a collapse in forest structure.
The runoff follows an Oct. 4 first round in which Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva received 45.16%, according to Brazil’s electoral court, with 99.99% of ballot boxes counted. Bolsonaro’s platform proposes ending illegal deforestation by 2029. Lula’s calls for net-zero deforestation by 2030 and continued implementation of control plans, setting a different target. The current government says it pairs satellite surveillance and enforcement with land-use planning and support for sustainable production.
The Associated Press reported that climate and conservation experts warned a Bolsonaro victory could reverse deforestation controls restored under Lula. A 2023 review in Science estimated that fire, forest edges, timber extraction and extreme drought had degraded 2.5 million square kilometers, or 38% of the remaining Amazon forest. The review said a limited group gains from degradation while forest dwellers bear particular costs.
The next scheduled checks are the runoff Sunday, Oct. 25, NOAA’s Nov. 12 ENSO discussion and INPE’s consolidated deforestation rate, expected in the first half of 2027.
