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Briferendum Aftermath Series: Post-Brexit relationship options for UK part 1

The United Kingdom is yet not out of the European Union as the referendum that rocked the financial markets and geo-policies across the world last month was non-binding. However, it is increasingly likely that Britain will trigger the Article 50, in order to exit from the European Union. The new Prime Minister of Britain Theresa May as of now rejected the possibility of the second referendum and has vowed to exit from the Union. In such a case, as per the Article 50, the United Kingdom and the European Union will have two years to negotiate the terms of an exit unless the deadline is extended by unanimous voting by all members (27 excluding Britain) of the Union.

So, what are the readily available options that the UK can choose from or base their negotiation on?

  • EEA or the Norwegian model: European Economic Area is an established relationship between the European Union and the countries outside. Currently, a group of three countries, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein have access to the EU single market through EEA. It provides unhindered access to the EU but in order to gain that these countries have accepted EU four pillars of freedom that includes freedom of movement or in other words, an open immigration. This option is unlikely to suit the United Kingdom as this model is utterly inflexible. There are not much room to maneuver or negotiate. Under this arrangement, Britain will have to accept single-market laws and will have no power to influence them. It will not prevent the immigration but will open up the borders, which will be defeating the main motto of the UK referendum.
     
  • The Canadian model: This model is something that Britain may aspire to. This relationship doesn’t involve accepting the European Union laws nor the freedom of movement. Moreover this relationship likely to eliminate tariffs on all industrial and most agricultural products. It smoothens out regulatory barriers. However, this deal in its current form doesn’t suit the United Kingdom whose major exports are financial and legal services, which is not included in the current model. To maneuver the model the UK may have to give in to the demand of tighter regulations of financial services and accept parts of immigration.
     
  • The Swiss model: This model is better known as an a-la-carte model and the European Union and Switzerland have negotiated various bilateral trade agreements over decades. It provides the Switzerland free access to single market and the UK will have to pay 40 percent of what it’s paying now. It can also opt out of the EU programs on case by case basis. The biggest fallout of this option is that it doesn’t include agreement on services that the United Kingdom is an expert on. In addition to that Switzerland accepts free movement of the people. The EU is unlikely to provide the UK a-la-carte option like it does to the Swiss as the UK is a much bigger economy than the Swiss.
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