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Briferendum Aftermath Series: Post-Brexit relationship options for UK part 2

The United Kingdom’s second female Prime Minister Theresa May will assume office on Wednesday after the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and she has vowed to make British exit from the European Union a success and as of now rejected the idea of a second referendum or any back door entry into the bloc. Now it remains to be seen when the new Prime Minister actually triggers the Article 50 as she has called for a cautious careful and slow approach as Britain wants to be prepared for it. In previous part of the article, which is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/Briferendum-Aftermath-Series-Post-Brexit-relationship-options-for-UK-part-1-234439 we have discussed the EEA or the Norwegian model, the Canadian model, and the Swiss model and in this part, we will look at the remaining options listed below -

  • The EFTA model: When the UK opted out of joining the EEC in 1957, it founded European Free Trade Association (EFTA) as an alternative. EFTA is a free trade area covering all non-agricultural goods. EFTA also has free trade agreements with the EU and numerous other countries. But with the success of the World Trade Organization (WTO), EU and other regional and bi-lateral trade agreements all EFTA members have either left to join the EU or sought greater integration with the EU through other channels. The biggest advantage of this model is that the UK will not be subjected to EU regulations and freedom of movement. However, this model in its current form doesn’t suit the UK as it doesn’t provide rights of access to EU market for service providers.
     
  • The WTO model: If the UK fails to secure a bilateral trade agreement with the European Union in the span of two years post triggering of Article 50 and a deadline is not extended it can still trade with the bloc as part of the international trade regime, similar to New Zealand. It can save the country from paying to European budget and prevent freedom of movement. But the biggest fallout is that the UK financial services industry will face major trade barrier in the EU which eventually will lead to greater cost.
     
  • The UK model: There are two options under this model, one that the UK can go for a fresh agreement with the European Union based on its requirements after exit or it can avail the current UK model which is best suited but that can be availed only via staying in the Union, probably through a second referendum. In the case of the first EU will try to press on the freedom of movement but Britain has an advantage over its geo-political influence across the globe and in security council of the United Nations. Both of these relations are the most uncertain of all as both requires walking an unprecedented path.

We, at FxWirePro, expects Britain to choose the UK model, however, as of now, the path is totally unclear over how the UK might approach that.

 

 

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