Robin J Brooks said broader trade flows fully offset Italy’s post-2022 drop in direct exports to Russia and partly offset Germany’s, sharpening questions about the credibility of Europe’s sanctions stance.
In an Oct. 20 post on Substack, Brooks compared monthly exports to Russia with combined exports to Russia and 10 other markets: Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. He marked March 2022, the first full month of the war in Ukraine, as the point when direct shipments began to fall. His Italy series runs through June 2026; Germany’s continues through August 2026.
Brooks said Italy’s combined series remained level after March 2022, meaning higher exports to the other markets fully offset the decline in direct exports to Russia. He found a similar but smaller offset in Germany: its combined total fell less than direct shipments. The charts report Italian export values in millions of dollars and German figures in millions of euros.
The figures add together exports to the listed destinations. They do not follow individual goods after they leave Italy or Germany, so the totals alone cannot show whether an item shipped to Turkey or a market in Central Asia or the Caucasus was later sent to Russia. Brooks interprets the pattern as transshipment through those routes; that conclusion is his analysis of aggregate trade figures.
Brooks linked the trade pattern to Europe’s standing during the war in Ukraine. He set his analysis beside remarks he attributed to German Chancellor Merz, who said Putin sought to defeat Ukraine and undermine democracy in Europe, and Italian Prime Minister Meloni’s criticism that a U.S.-Russia diesel arrangement weakened Western sanctions and gave Russia legitimacy. Brooks argued that Russia and China were watching for mixed signals from Europe. He characterized the short-term commercial incentive as carrying a longer-term cost to Europe’s credibility.
The post follows Brooks’ earlier analysis of possible Russian transit in China’s exports.
