Selling AUD/USD high strikes (calls) is the best implementation given the downside volatility risk.Societe Generale notes the following scenarios: We prefer selling AUD options than CAD options. The other leg of the trad…
Selling AUD/USD high strikes (calls) is the best implementation given the downside volatility risk.
Societe Generale notes the following scenarios:
We prefer selling AUD options than CAD options. The other leg of the trade should be Buying USD/CAD low strikes (puts). We examine the possible scenarios below, depending on the future correlation between AUD and CAD:
Correlation break between AUD and CADOur best-case scenario sees the BoC staying on hold while the RBA cuts. The CAD would likely outperform the AUD, and we find this configuration to be the most likely. Investors would gain on their USD/CAD puts and likely stay unexposed on their short AUD/USD calls.
In the worst-case scenario, the CAD does not appreciate (or falls) while the AUD bounces significantly higher. This is a painful scenario since investors would suffer on their short AUD/USD calls and would be unprotected by their long USD/CAD puts. This scenario is also the less likely in our view.
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