A Centre for Social Justice analysis says non-UK nationals accounted for about 80% of UK payroll growth in a comparison from July 2014 through December 2025, led by non-EU nationals.
The Centre's analysis of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) data puts the increase at roughly 3.7 million positions. Non-EU nationals, excluding UK nationals, accounted for about 2.5 million of that rise; EU nationals accounted for 408,000 and UK nationals for 734,000.
The calculation compares July 2014 with December 2025. HMRC says its monthly series is not seasonally adjusted and recommends comparing the same month across years, so the Centre's 80% figure reflects its July-to-December comparison. UK nationals still held most recorded positions at the end of the period: 25.6 million of 32.1 million in December 2025.
In the year to December 2025, total payroll positions declined 0.5%, HMRC reported. Positions held by UK nationals fell by 333,400 and those held by EU nationals decreased by 74,000, while the count for non-EU nationals rose by 238,200. The Centre says health and social work accounted for 29% of the non-EU payroll increase in its analysis, and administrative and support services for 16%.
The figures count payroll positions rather than individual workers and exclude self-employment. HMRC records nationality when people register for a National Insurance number and does not update that record after a citizenship change, so the non-UK count may include people who later became British citizens. Changes in group totals do not identify who took a particular job opening.
The Centre recommends more investment in skills and employment support for people already in Britain, along with changes to welfare and immigration policy. It argues that employers gained access to overseas labor while taxpayers bore costs associated with domestic worklessness; the payroll data do not establish the causes of hiring patterns or quantify those costs.
Separately, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) provisionally estimated net migration at 171,000 for the year ending December 2025, down from a revised 331,000 for the year ending December 2024. ONS said work-related arrivals by non-EU+ nationals fell 47% to about 146,000 and that immigration rule changes in 2024 and 2025 may have contributed to the broader fall in arrivals. The ONS's EU+ grouping includes the EU, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland; its migration figures cover a different population from HMRC's payroll data. The agency said the 2025 migration level was last seen around early 2021 and lists its next release date as "To be announced."
