Canadian economy likely added jobs in October, jobless rate to have remained unchanged

Canada’s employment data for the month of October is set to be released tomorrow. According to a TD Economics research report, the Canadian economy is likely to have added 5k jobs on rebound in full-time hiring. LFS employment has swung in recent months; however, total job growth through August has underperformed sharply that reported by the Survey of Employment, Payrolls & Hours over 2018. While the gap is unlikely to close in one month, it does not suggest that a full unwind of the September gains is not to be expected.

“However, we do expect some giveback in part time employment after 80k jobs were created in September and look for the construction sector to give up some of the 28k added jobs”, stated TD Economics.

The jobless rate is expected to be holding at 5.9 percent, but the risks are skewed towards a tick lower if last month’s improvement in the participation rate correct. Nevertheless, wage growth would be hard pressed to push higher given solid base effects. A 10 percent rise to Alberta’s minimum wage might help underpin the sequential print but this follows a more considerable hike in 2017.

At 19:00 GMT the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of Canadian Dollar was neutral at -25.4868, while the FxWirePro's Hourly Strength Index of US Dollar was bearish at -88.9092. For more details on FxWirePro's Currency Strength Index, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex