China’s renewables supplied 41.8% of power generation in the first nine months of 2026, as an outlook projects new clean power will cover all added electricity demand by 2030.
The projection concerns additions to supply and demand, not China’s entire electricity mix. Under both modeled scenarios, new generation from renewables, natural gas and nuclear is expected to meet demand growth around 2030.
The China Energy Transformation Outlook 2026 was posted Nov. 13. The Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research prepared it with technical support from the Danish Energy Agency and Ea Energy Analyses. The report says it reflects the project team’s research views and is not an official statement.
The outlook puts the later milestone for newly added renewable generation alone between 2035 and 2040. It identifies wind and solar as the main drivers of electricity growth and estimates total demand of 13,700–14,200 terawatt-hours in 2030.
China’s National Energy Administration (NEA) reported that renewables generated 3.13 trillion kilowatt-hours during the first nine months of 2026, up about 8% from the same period a year earlier. Renewable generation increased by more than 250 billion kilowatt-hours and accounted for 87.5% of the rise in national power generation, the NEA said.
The report says wind and solar’s variable output will require more regulation capacity, grid upgrades and flexible demand as their share grows. Its two scenarios also model energy-sector employment rising 47.5% or 102.1% from 2025 to 2030, equivalent to about 15 million or 30 million additional jobs. The report says modeled renewable-sector job creation would exceed job losses in fossil-fuel sectors such as coal; those figures are projections, not observed outcomes.
The authors present scenario results rather than point forecasts. They say outcomes could shift with policy execution and resource conditions, as well as technology prices and economic growth.
