Robin J Brooks said Brent crude’s $116-a-barrel price includes a premium for possible renewed U.S. bombing, while September 2026 data show China’s imports remained below prewar levels.
In a Substack post dated Oct. 23, 2026, Brooks argued that the shortfall reflected Iranian oil no longer reaching China, rather than an effort to rebuild inventories. He said Iran had exported nearly two million barrels of oil per day before the war, with China buying almost all of it. He linked China’s initial import decline to shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the later U.S. blockade of Iran.
Brooks rejected claims that China had deliberately reduced imports to steady oil prices, saying its decline matched that of other buyers. He said China therefore was not the buyer setting the marginal price.
The post’s monthly import data run through September 2026. China imported about nine million barrels per day that month, compared with 11 million before the war. Japan and South Korea were each near their prewar levels at about 2.5 million barrels per day. India imported 5.4 million barrels per day in September 2026, up from 4.9 million in September 2025; Brooks said it was the only one of the four countries slightly above its prewar level.
Brooks said Brent’s $116 price reflected a risk premium tied to expectations that U.S. bombing could resume after the midterm elections. He argued that this premium was out of step with current oil flows. The post said supply from the Gulf and buying by major Asian countries had returned to normal.
The price debate has also included President Donald Trump’s accusation that Iran was seeking higher oil prices ahead of the U.S. midterms.
Brooks said October imports might have increased, but he did not think they had. The post’s data stopped at September and did not include an October reading.
