China’s seaborne crude imports fell about 5.5 million barrels per day from February to June, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, a drop that eased pressure on other Asian buyers during the Iran conflict.
The IEA’s figures were 11.5 million barrels per day in February and 6 million in June. They track seaborne imports, not total oil use. In an analysis for Commodity Context, oil analyst and founder Rory Johnston estimated a 5.4 million-barrel-a-day decline from prewar levels through June.
Using data from China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) calculated that total crude imports fell 3.9 million barrels per day quarter over quarter, while refinery processing declined by 2.2 million. The EIA said the difference suggested crude inventory draws. It put average total imports in the second quarter at 8.1 million barrels per day, 32% below the first quarter. Imports were below 8 million barrels per day in both May and June, the first time that two-month pattern had occurred since 2016.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that crude processing was 51.24 million metric tons in June, down 17.7% from a year earlier. Processing for the first half of 2026 totaled 343.87 million metric tons, a 4.9% year-over-year decline.
The IEA measures apparent demand separately from imports. Its comparison with February put the average for the following six months 1.7 million barrels per day lower. Against the same six-month period a year earlier, the shortfall was 1.1 million barrels per day.
China does not publish oil-inventory figures. The EIA’s estimated strategic oil inventories include government-held and commercial stocks; its estimates fell from 1.541 billion barrels in the first quarter to 1.492 billion in the second, a decrease of 49 million barrels.
In a July 29 interview with ChinaTalk, Johnston said visible crude inventories had not fallen enough to explain the import change. “That’s all we know for sure. Everything else is speculation,” he said.
The IEA said inventory buffers are being depleted and warned that further disruptions could affect markets if they delay the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and bypass routes.
