China's January CPI is expected to have risen to 1.8% y/y, as compared with 1.6% y/y in December. This is mainly due to rise in food prices before the Chinese New Year. The festival period in 2016 comes earlier than in 2015, creating a positive base effect. Other categories are likely to have remained stable as the authorities did not reduce domestic retail gasoline prices despite the further drop in oil prices in the start of 2016.
"The PPI is likely to have improved as well, from -5.9% yoy to -5.4% yoy, thanks solely to positive base effects. The mom rate probably remained negative amid a very modest improvement in the PMI input price index", says Societe Generale.
