China's industrial production in January and February is likely to have weakened again to 5.5% from December's 5.9% y/y, amidst weakening manufacturing PMIs. The data for the first two months of 2016 are expected to give mixed signals. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment growth is expected to have recovered, increasing 9% y/y from 8.3%.
Infrastructure backed by solid credit support is expected to have contributed to the likely growth in fixed asset investment, while housing investment is expected to have remained in contraction, in spite of sharp increase in housing sales in big cities.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce had reported that retail sales during the Chinese New Year week grew 11.2% y/y in 2016, as compared with the growth of 11% y/y in 2015. However, there is a repeated pattern of sudden and notable slowdown observed in this series. Hence, it is expected to have slowed to 10.5% y/y in the first two months of 2016 from 11.1% y/y in 2015.
