Twenty-five of 37 respondents in Citigroup’s Oct. 20 survey expect no change in Mexico’s 6.50% policy rate through 2027, providing a measure of private-sector expectations for borrowing costs.
The results are forecasts, not guidance or a commitment from Banco de México (Banxico), which sets the rate. Twelve respondents anticipate a change before 2028: three see one during 2026 and nine during 2027. The median estimate is 6.50% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, while individual forecasts for the latter year range from 6.00% to 7.25%.
Citi’s median headline inflation estimates are 3.90% at the end of 2026 and 3.86% a year later. The median core inflation projection is 3.80% at both year-ends. These are survey respondents’ estimates, not official inflation projections from Banxico.
The survey’s median GDP growth outlook is 1.4% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, unchanged from Citi’s prior survey. Respondents’ projections range from 0.9% to 1.7% for 2026 and from 1.0% to 2.1% for 2027.
Citi’s currency consensus is higher at both year-end checkpoints than in the prior survey. The USD/MXN forecast is 18.20 at the end of 2026, up from 18.00, and 18.60 at the end of 2027, up from 18.50. Individual end-2027 estimates span 17.00 to 19.80.
Banxico left its overnight interbank rate at 6.50% on Sept. 24. In explaining the decision, the board pointed to exchange-rate movements and the different stages of Mexico’s and the United States’ economic cycles. It also said demand was not driving price pressure in Mexico and considered the degree of monetary restraint already in place. Banxico projected inflation would converge with its target in the fourth quarter of 2027, while saying risks continued to favor higher inflation.
Banxico’s 2026 calendar lists Nov. 5 as its next scheduled policy decision.
