Consumer Confidence Craters: UoM Sentiment Hits June 2022 Lows on Iran War Gas Shock

The University of Michigan released its early Consumer Sentiment index for June 2026 on June 12. It showed a third straight month of decline, which is concerning. American households are struggling with economic problems because of the ongoing conflict with Iran. The main sentiment number stayed around 44.8, the same as May's final number. This is one of the lowest levels ever recorded, almost as low as the lowest point in June 2022. Both the Current Conditions index (around 58.3) and the Expectations index (around 56.6) are low. This means people are very worried about their money now and in the future. Their expectations dropped by 11.6% from last year, one of the biggest drops we've seen recently.

The main reason for this ongoing drop is the worsening energy crisis. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused this crisis, making gas prices jump and increasing worries about the cost of living for everyone, no matter their income. More than half of consumers (57%, up from 50% last month) now say that high prices are hurting their personal finances. Lower-income households are feeling this the most because they are more affected by sudden increases in essential costs. This worry also has a political side. Independent and Republican voters reported their lowest sentiment levels during this presidential administration. This suggests that the economic problems are starting to influence the national mood, not just people's wallets.

Even though people expect inflation to be slightly lower in the coming year (3.5%, down from 4.0% and the lowest since January 2025), Americans are still very worried that high prices won't just be about gas but will spread throughout the whole economy. Overall sentiment is now about 11.4% lower than it was a year ago and is at some of the lowest points in a generation. This data suggests the economy is slowing down because of global supply problems caused by political events, not that it is completely falling apart. For the Federal Reserve, this bad consumer mood means they will continue to base their decisions on economic data. Officials will stay careful about saying they've beaten inflation, especially while the war keeps affecting people's confidence.