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JPMorgan has sharply lowered its near-term gold price outlook, citing weaker-than-expected demand from major buying sectors and growing uncertainty over U.S. monetary policy. The bank now expects gold prices to average around $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter and rise to approximately $4,500 per ounce in the fourth quarter, a significant reduction from its earlier projection of $6,000 by year-end announced on June 9.
The revised forecast reflects concerns that demand for gold may not be as robust as previously anticipated. JPMorgan also warned that risks to its outlook are tilted to the downside, particularly if stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data prompts the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect.
Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, as investors shift toward interest-bearing investments offering higher returns.
Despite the downgraded short-term forecast, JPMorgan remains optimistic about gold over the longer term. The bank expects bullion to continue gaining momentum into 2027, supported by sustained central bank purchases, resilient physical demand, and long-term structural factors driving precious metal accumulation.
Gold prices reflected continued investor interest on Friday, with spot gold rising 1.3% to $4,174.21 per ounce by 1241 GMT after reaching its highest level since June 23. The precious metal has gained more than 2% so far this week.
JPMorgan also maintained a constructive outlook for other precious metals. The bank forecasts silver prices to average between $60 and $65 per ounce during its outlook period as physical market tightness eases and the gold-to-silver ratio gradually returns to more typical levels.
For platinum, JPMorgan expects prices to reach around $1,800 per ounce by the end of 2026 and climb to approximately $1,950 by the end of 2027, supported by supply constraints in South Africa. Palladium is projected to trade at about $1,350 per ounce by the end of 2026 before averaging roughly $1,300 in 2027, reflecting broader weakness across the precious metals market.
