A BloombergNEF forecast says copper demand could exceed available supply by 20 million metric tons in 2050, highlighting the scale of new mine investment needed to keep electrification and power networks supplied.
The firm's Transition Metals Outlook 2026, released Oct. 20, estimates the gap could equal 44% of global demand that year. Closing it would require $332 billion in new mine investment, and BloombergNEF projects the shortage could emerge in 2028.
The outlook sees copper demand growing 61% from 2026 to nearly 46 million tons in 2050. Demand tied to electrified transport is projected to reach 11.4 million tons, a 244% increase. Based on those figures, transport would account for about a quarter of projected demand, while power grids and other uses also draw on the same supply base.
BloombergNEF puts the typical wait before a new copper mine begins operating at 17 years. It also points to lower ore grades and years of insufficient exploration spending as limits on supply growth. Mine development and reserve replacement would keep capacity sufficient through 2050 for the nine other materials studied, BloombergNEF projects. Copper is the exception.
The projected imbalance may push prices higher and slow deployment of electric vehicles, batteries and grid infrastructure, BloombergNEF says. That could mean higher material costs for buyers or delays to projects. The firm's previous outlook projected deficits in three materials, compared with one in the 2026 edition.
The long-term assessment differs from the near-term refined-copper forecast by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The group expects surpluses of about 104,000 metric tons in 2026 and 368,000 metric tons in 2027. Those estimates cover refined copper over the next two years, while BloombergNEF compares longer-run supply with total demand through 2050. EconoTimes previously covered the ICSG surplus forecast.
ICSG has its next meetings scheduled for April 2027, according to EconoTimes' earlier coverage.
