Crude Cool-Down: Easing Supply Fears and Strategic Reserves Dampen Energy Rally

Crude pared some of its gains due to easing supply issues. It is presently trading around $94.56 after reaching a low of $94.45.

Brent crude oil prices have fallen back from recent highs after fears of a long-lasting shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz subsided after a Pakistani tanker and two LPG vessels passed through that vital chokepoint safely. This de-escalation is being propelled by successful back-channel negotiations among the United States, Iran, and India, as well as signals from the IEA and the U.S. that an imminent release of emergency oil reserves is in the works. Though heightened tensions between Middle East nations and UAE production cuts saw the price rally 17.4% over three days, the resumption of normal tanker traffic and a coalition-led risk mitigation framework have effectively capped that potential risk premium, leaving Brent crude quiet around USD 102.76 per barrel.

Price Resistance and Support Levels

The near-term resistance is around $100; any close above this level could push prices higher to $102.44/$103.20/$104.56/$105. On the downside, immediate support is at $73 violation below targets  $72.50/$70/$69.15/$68.

 It is good to sell on rallies around $95.80-96 with a stop-loss around $100 and a target price of $80/$77.