Currency snapshot (major pairs)

Dollar index trading at 95.06 (+0.12%)

Strength meter (today so far) – Euro -0.12%, Franc -0.24%, Yen -0.62%, GBP -0.03%

Strength meter (since last week) – Euro +0.91%, Franc +0.52%, Yen +0.81%, GBP +0.11%

EUR/USD –

Trading at 1.125

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support                      

• Long term – 1.06, Medium term – 1.08, Short term – 1.09            

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.16, Medium term – 1.143, Short term – 1.132

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• The euro scaled back its gains as the dollar rebounded after Draghi speech. Active call – Sell EUR/USD at 1.116 with stop loss at 1.15 and target at 1.01. However, in the short run, Euro might ride higher.

GBP/USD –

Trading at 1.33

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Sell, Short term – Buy

Support –

• Long term – 1.2, Medium term – 1.27, Short term – 1.29

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.39, Medium term – 1.35, Short term – 1.34

Economic release today –

• Consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.2 percent.
• Trade balance improved to -£4.5 billion.

Commentary –

• The pound remains weak as Carney signaled possibility of further rate cuts. We expect the pound to reach parity.

USD/JPY –                      

Trading at 102.9

Trend meter –

• Long term – Sell, Medium term – Range/ Sell, Short term – Sell

Support –

• Long term – 91, Medium term – 98, Short term – 98

Resistance –

• Long term – 111, Medium term – 107, Short term – 107

Economic release today –

• Tertiary industry index rose by 0.3 percent in July.

Commentary –

• The yen declined sharply on rebounding dollar.  Active call – Buy Yen @119.5 with stop loss around 123.8 and target at 114 and 110, 108.9 and 98.5. All targets reached, new target 90 added. Yen may retrace to 111 per dollar if BOJ intervenes.

USD/CHF –        

Trading at 0.974

Trend meter –

• Long term – Buy, Medium term – Range, Short term – Range/Sell

Support –

• Long term – 0.9, Medium term – 0.927, Short term – 0.95

Resistance –

• Long term – 1.037, Medium term – 1.01, Short term – 0.994

Economic release today –

• NIL

Commentary –

• Franc also scaled back its gains but still positive on the dollar. We expect Franc to strengthen against Dollar to as high as 0.86 area in the medium term.