FOMC meeting will release US inflation data for May today. The data is expected to provide another key input into the policy debate. While a recovery in CPI inflation towards 2% over the medium term is expected by the Co…
FOMC meeting will release US inflation data for May today. The data is expected to provide another key input into the policy debate. While a recovery in CPI inflation towards 2% over the medium term is expected by the Committee, the near-term profile has been expected to remain low.
However, today's release is likely to provide evidence that inflation has bottomed out in the US. Following the drop to -0.2% in April, a rebound in annual headline CPI is likely at +0.1% due in part to higher petrol prices alongside the relative firmness of 'core' inflation which is likely to remain unchanged at 1.8% y/y, says Lloyds Bank.
Domestically, retail sales for May will provide a timely update on the health of the UK consumer sector following April's 1.2% rise in headline sales volumes. The boost to discretionary spending power in recent months from a combination of rising wage growth and weak inflation has provided a supportive undercurrent to retail activity. Survey evidence for May have painted a mixed picture, but we look for an easing back in retail sales after the robust rise in April, and forecast a 0.5% dip on both the headline and ex-fuel series, adds Lloyds Bank.
Meanwhile, with the 30th June deadline fast approaching, today's eurogroup meeting represents another opportunity for member states to find a solution for the Greek issue. However, based on the rhetoric over the past couple of days, expectations of an agreement are low.
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