Daily Economic Outlook: 7th October, 2015

Domestically, today's industrial production release will provide further insight into the outlook for Q3 U.K. GDP. Recent changes to historical output data as part of the annual Blue Book process means the current vintage of monthly data is inconsistent with these methodological changes. This adds to the uncertainty over the August outturn. 

With the weakness of manufacturing at least partly attributable to sterling's strength in recent months, the outlook for the sector looks challenging, with some signs of softness already seen in surveys such as the PMI and CBI Industrial Trends. 

"Nevertheless, we look for manufacturing output to pare back some of July's decline and forecast expansion of 0.3% on the month. Other areas of production are expected to drag overall, with a further scaling back in mining activity likely to weigh on overall gains in industrial activity. We forecast overall industrial output growth of 0.2% on the month", says Lloyds Bank.

Elsewhere, this morning's August industrial production data for two out of the four largest euro area economies will provide further evidence on whether economic growth in the region has continued to improve in Q3.