Markets put the chance of no December Fed rate change at 23.1% on Wednesday, leaving a 76.9% probability of a quarter-point increase. The shift followed Democrats’ win of both chambers in the midterm elections.
A quarter-point increase equals 0.25 percentage point, or 25 basis points. These odds reflect market trading, not a policy announcement or commitment by the Fed.
A Friday estimate from Prime Terminal, cited by FXStreet, put the probability at 70%, 6.9 percentage points below Wednesday’s level. Earlier market pricing had favored a December increase over an October move, as EconoTimes noted in previous coverage.
