Reuters reported that the U.S. dollar index rose 0.63% to 102.12 on Friday after October payrolls beat forecasts, while market pricing for a December Federal Reserve increase moved toward 80% after the release.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said nonfarm payrolls grew by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Reuters put traders’ pricing for a December rate increase of at least 25 basis points near 67% on Thursday before it moved higher after the jobs figures. That pricing reflects market expectations, not a Fed decision.
MUFG Research’s Nov. 6 note came before the employment release. It connected the dollar’s earlier recovery from post-election losses with investors’ turn toward traditional havens during a decline in AI-linked shares. Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG Research, said the foreign-exchange spillover had been “surprisingly modest so far.”
MUFG’s review put the Nasdaq Composite down about 5.5% in the prior U.S. trading session. Japan’s Topix and South Korea’s Kospi each lost roughly 6% overnight. The Nasdaq remained a little more than 12% below its October high, a decline MUFG compared in scale with the index’s 13.8% drop in the first quarter of 2026.
In MUFG’s currency comparison, the yen, U.S. dollar and Swiss franc outperformed the other Group of 10 currencies during the period covered. The firm put the Australian dollar’s loss against the U.S. dollar at roughly 1.5% from Nov. 4 and also cited lower energy prices, including natural gas, as a pressure.
Hardman said investor uncertainty included the possibility that election results could disrupt AI data-center construction or lead to tighter regulation. He said higher energy prices and foreign demand for riskier U.S. assets had supported the dollar this year, and warned that a reversal in those forces could weigh on the currency. MUFG also said tighter financial conditions could lower the likelihood of a December rate increase.
The BLS lists Dec. 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET for its November employment report. The Fed calendar shows the next meeting on Dec. 8-9.
