Thursday’s dollar trading showed competing forces: the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was near 101.70 in Asia, while a later intraday Treasury yield drop came alongside continued bets on a December rate increase.
FXStreet placed DXY near 101.70 during Asian trading on Oct. 22 and cited Treasury yields and December rate expectations as factors in the session. Reuters reported a later New York reading of 101.82, up 0.14%. The figures reflect separate snapshots during the day.
The U.S. Treasury’s daily par-yield series showed the 10-year yield at 5.13% on Oct. 21. That was below the 5.28% recorded on Oct. 7, but slightly above the 5.12% reading on Oct. 20. Treasury’s daily par yields use indicative bid-side quotations gathered at or near 3:30 p.m. ET.
The Associated Press later reported an intraday 10-year yield of 4.96% on Thursday, down from 5.13% late Wednesday. That market reading is separate from Treasury’s daily par-yield series.
Futures pricing continued to point to a possible December increase, though the reported estimates differed by date. Reuters cited an 88% probability on Oct. 21, while FXStreet reported about 90% on Oct. 22. CME FedWatch derives its probabilities from 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices, so the figures reflect market pricing rather than a Federal Reserve forecast.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% on Sept. 16. Its next meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27-28, with a policy decision due Oct. 28. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has scheduled its advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product and its September Personal Income and Outlays report for Oct. 29.
The index had also approached 101.70 earlier in the week amid conflicting reports about a U.S.-Iran proposal, covered in EconoTimes’ earlier account of the move toward 101.70 amid Iran reports.
