The U.S. dollar weakened after vote counts pointed to Democratic majorities in both chambers of Congress, a result ING said could complicate Republican policy plans and weigh on the currency into 2027.
ING described the results as based on most votes counted. Reuters reported that the U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.25% to 101.60 on Nov. 4, after reaching 101.21, its lowest level since Sept. 30.
Nasdaq futures recovered most of their earlier losses, ING said. The bank argued that economic resilience and its expectation of at least one more Federal Reserve rate increase could cushion the dollar. Those are ING’s assessments, not confirmed outcomes.
The bank said a Democratic-led Congress could stall major tax and spending proposals and bring more scrutiny of deregulation and artificial intelligence. ING said technology companies could face more congressional hearings and local opposition to data center construction. Fossil fuel producers may face similar challenges, the bank added, while some other companies could benefit from a steadier policy backdrop.
ING also flagged the possibility of a prolonged government shutdown in mid-2027. Its analysis linked that risk to a debt-ceiling issue expected to come to a head around mid-summer and limited room for compromise. As historical context, ING said the October 2025 shutdown reduced fourth-quarter GDP growth by a full percentage point.
The bank’s outlook still leaned toward a 5.25% yield on 10-year Treasury notes, but gave no timeframe for that level. ING said greater political friction could add to pressure on the dollar next year.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ October Employment Situation report is due Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Federal Open Market Committee’s next scheduled meeting is Dec. 8-9.
