Domestic demand likely to have driven Polish economy, inflation to have slowed in November

The flash estimate of Polish third quarter economic growth had come in at 4.7 percent year-on-year, affirming robust momentum of growth. The breakdown of the GDP growth should indicate that domestic demand, especially solid growth in private consumption, is stimulating economic growth, noted Erste Research Group.

However, invested growth print is the most awaited figure. The recovery in investment activity is already long-awaited and it is likely to have grown positively. However, it appears that investment has been rising mostly in the public sector, while private investment continues to be sluggish. Net exports are expected to have mostly contributed positively to growth, lifting GDP dynamics.

“We expect the inflation rate to go back to 2.2 percent y/y in November (market expects flash CPI at 2.3 percent y/y) after dropping to 2.1 percent y/y in October”, added Erste Research Group.

The rising rate of inflation is most likely being stimulated by commodity prices rising over the last couple of months.

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