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What can FOMC do today? - Nothing
It is not expected to do anything today and it will do nothing. Don't even expect it to be major market mover.
Forget about changing fundamentals.
Unless FED is interested in talking QE4.
Which we don't think the FED will be doing.
So, Will FED hike today?
NO.
Will it cut rates?
NO.
Will it indicate slower pace of hike?
YES. If yes, we already expect that. We also know, that would be data dependent.
Will FED acknowledge recent market turmoil and trouble in China?
YES. No surprise there.
Is that likely to slow down FED hikes?
Even if yes, already priced in.
Can't think of anything......that could be surprising. Nevertheless, there are few things to watch out in FOMC.
- US economic data has been weak, expect for the payroll. Manufacturing sector is in recession. Will FED acknowledge weakness in the economy and push back hike expectations further.
- What would be FED's commentaries on market turmoil and volatility?
- How has the overall view of the FED changes over inflation with five new voting members on board?
