The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lifted its 2027 U.S. retail gasoline forecast to $3.73 a gallon, reflecting tighter global fuel markets even as it expects a lower annual average than in 2026.
The new estimate is 4.7% above EIA’s October forecast of $3.56 per gallon. It remains below the agency’s $3.89 projection for 2026 and above the $3.10 average recorded in 2025. These are annual U.S. retail averages, not estimates for a particular month or individual gas station.
EIA’s November outlook assumes global petroleum-product supply constraints will persist through the end of 2027. The agency expects those conditions to widen the price gap between refined products and crude oil next year, giving U.S. refiners an incentive to maintain elevated activity.
The outlook also reflects higher crude prices in October. Brent crude’s average reached $124 per barrel that month, a $10 increase from September, EIA reported. The agency linked the rise to declining global inventories, attacks on oil tankers, limited shipping capacity and higher transportation costs. October’s Brent average was the highest since July 2022, when the inflation-adjusted average was $127 per barrel, according to EIA.
For the balance of 2026, Brent is projected at about $100 per barrel; EIA’s expected average for the final quarter of 2027 is $77. That projection assumes global oil inventories will build next year and most Middle East production outside Iran will return to pre-conflict averages by midyear.
The agency finalized its forecast inputs on Nov. 5 and said the outlook does not specifically account for market events after that date. EIA’s next Short-Term Energy Outlook is scheduled for Dec. 8.
