EURGBP Holds Strong: Bullish Bias Despite Flat Trading, BoE Rate Cut Unlikely in September

EURGBP trades flat after hitting a multi-month high. Intraday bias remains bullish as long as support 0.8580 holds. It hits an intraday high of 0.86708 and is currently trading around 0.86642.

With a September reduction improbable, the Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to maintain a prudent approach to interest rate reductions across the latter half of 2025. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to support interest rate cuts in August and November, consistent with their traditional quarterly intervals and a slow, data-dependent approach amid ongoing inflation issues. They kept the rate at 4. 25% in June. Although financial markets and analysts project the base rate to be 3. 75% by year's end 2025, indicating two further quarter-point cuts, the September meeting is generally regarded as a "hold" rather than a time for lowering.

Technical Analysis

The pair is currently trading above 55 and 200- EMA and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart.

Bearish Trend Confirmation: Any break below 0.8580 confirms an intraday bearish trend. A drop to 0.8520/0.8480/0.84425/0.8400/0.8378/0.8340/0.8300 is likely.

Near-Term Resistance:  The near -term resistance is around 0.8700. Any violation above will take the pair to 0.8765/0.8800.

Indicator Analysis (4-hour chart)

CCI (50): Bullish

Average Directional Movement Index:  Bullish

Trading Recommendation

It  is good to buy on dips around 0.8650 with SL around 0.8600  for a TP of 0.8765.

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