The Edmonton Chamber of Commerce said Alberta’s preliminary vote against beginning legal steps toward a future binding separation referendum gives businesses greater clarity after months of uncertainty.
Scotiabank’s Oct. 20 snapshot of Elections Alberta’s unofficial count showed about 76% backing Alberta’s place in Canada. On Oct. 19, voters chose between keeping the province in Canada and directing its government to take legal steps toward a later binding separation vote. The nonbinding question did not decide independence.
The Edmonton Chamber said the referendum debate had made investment decisions harder. It called on Alberta and other governments to improve conditions for businesses to invest and grow, and described the result as an opportunity to rebuild confidence.
A survey conducted before the vote offers a measure of the concern among its respondents. The Alberta Chambers of Commerce surveyed 630 businesses online from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2. Of those respondents, 44% said discussion of separation was affecting their business; among those reporting an effect, 96% described it as negative, particularly for planning and investment. Survey invitations went to the organization’s member chambers and additional businesses that were not chamber members.
The Canadian dollar also gained on Oct. 20. Reuters reported it was up 0.5% at C$1.4045 per U.S. dollar at 12:29 p.m. ET and described the referendum result as one factor. Derek Holt, Scotiabank’s vice president and head of capital markets economics, disputed that explanation. He said the currency showed no immediate response when the result was called, pointing instead to higher oil prices and expectations for Bank of Canada interest rates.
The vote leaves the policy disagreements behind the separation debate unresolved. Before the referendum, the Business Council of Alberta cited concerns about equalization, federal regulation and approvals for major projects. It warned that separation could prolong uncertainty over trade, debt and jobs, while arguing that remaining in Canada need not mean accepting existing policies.
The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its next interest-rate decision and release its Monetary Policy Report on Oct. 28. Elections Alberta plans to announce official referendum results Oct. 29.
