A peer-reviewed study put England’s 2024 North-South mortality divide at 42.4% for adults ages 25 to 49, as ministers prepare a fiscal devolution roadmap for the Budget.
For people under 75, the regional difference was 25.9%. The estimates account for differences in age and sex. Researchers compared registered deaths with midyear population counts, sorting the data by sex and five-year age brackets. The analysis included deaths from all causes.
The paper measured a 13% difference for adults ages 25 to 49 in 1981, so the relative gap had more than tripled by 2024. From 2010 to 2019, excess mortality in the North for that age group increased annually by 1.8% for women and 1.2% for men. The study found no narrowing for any age or sex group from 2020 to 2024.
Earlier analyses had traced a widening mortality difference among people ages 25 to 44 from the mid-1990s through 2016. The latest study documents regional patterns but does not identify their causes. Its authors plan further analysis. Professor Iain Buchan of the University of Liverpool called the findings “deeply concerning for England’s health, social fabric and economy.”
The government plans to issue its fiscal devolution roadmap with the Oct. 28 Budget. A July Cabinet statement says mayors are due to start receiving a share of local income-tax revenue in 2028 and retain more business-rate revenue. It also says the government will consider fairness between regions and rebalance public investment.
The government said the Budget would also bring changes to the Green Book, its framework for assessing spending proposals. The revisions are meant to help local areas show how investment projects fit together and bring previously overlooked places into consideration. Chancellor John Healey said the changes would give regional leaders more influence over investment decisions. The Cabinet statement says detailed arrangements for retained income-tax revenue will be set out at a later Spending Review.
