The euro’s rise has put Poland’s zloty under pressure ahead of inflation data, with ING expecting the currency to lag regional peers as global risk appetite deteriorates.
ING EMEA FX and Fixed Income Strategist Frantisek Taborsky said the bank sees the zloty as especially vulnerable among major Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies. ING reported that the euro traded above 4.400 zlotys on Oct. 23 and forecast further gains in EUR/PLN, the number of zlotys needed to buy one euro. A higher rate means the zloty has weakened against the euro; further movement in that direction is ING’s forecast.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) euro reference exchange rate was 4.3945 zlotys on Oct. 23, up from 4.3695 the previous day. That daily fixing is a reference snapshot and does not conflict with ING’s report of intraday trading above 4.400. The latest view builds on earlier coverage of ING’s regional currency assessment.
Polish consumer prices rose 4.1% year over year in September, Statistics Poland reported. ING forecasts a slowdown to 3.7% in October and cites the government’s fuel price program as one factor. The October figure is expected Oct. 30.
Poland’s Ministry of Energy says maximum retail fuel prices and reduced fuel taxes are scheduled to remain in place through Dec. 31, 2026. The ministry says high, unstable global fuel prices prompted the program and that lower prices benefit drivers, families and the wider economy. It says revenue from a new tax on fuel companies’ extraordinary profits will help fund the program.
ING expects the Czech National Bank (CNB) to raise rates at its Nov. 5 meeting, which the bank says could support the koruna. CNB Deputy Governor Jan Frait told Bloomberg the decision was not settled. He said policymakers also had to consider financing conditions that market rates had already tightened.
The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27-28, followed by the ECB’s policy decision on Oct. 29. Preliminary third-quarter growth figures for the Czech Republic and Hungary, along with Poland’s October inflation reading, are expected Oct. 30. The CNB’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Nov. 5.
