ING EMEA FX and Fixed Income Strategist Frantisek Taborsky sees different pressures across Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, with Czech rate expectations offering possible support for the koruna as energy exposure weighs on peers, FXStreet reported Oct. 23.
Taborsky’s broader stance remained bearish, even as he described trading in the region’s foreign-exchange market as relatively resilient. He also pointed to investor caution and elevated energy prices as headwinds for emerging-market currencies. He linked greater pressure on the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint to their dependence on imported energy and to monetary authorities he viewed as less inclined to signal tighter policy. He saw limited room for EUR/HUF to rise beyond 368–370 forints per euro and said EUR/PLN remained exposed to further gains.
Taborsky said EUR/CZK could test 24.200–24.250 koruna per euro and linked that view to a possible Czech rate increase. In an interview published by the Czech National Bank (CNB), Deputy Governor Jan Frait described the case for higher rates as strong but said no decision had been made. The CNB lists its next monetary-policy meeting for Nov. 5.
Romania’s Parliament approved a new government Oct. 20 with 280 votes in favor and 58 against, out of 338 valid votes, Radio România Actualități reported. Taborsky said EUR/RON had returned to 5.340 Romanian lei per euro after the vote and expected it to stabilize near that level. He said renewed political uncertainty could tilt risks toward a higher EUR/RON rate.
The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) held its base rate at 5.50%, effective Oct. 21. In its Oct. 20 statement, the bank pointed to geopolitical tensions alongside elevated global oil and gas prices and said Romania’s and Poland’s central banks had also kept rates unchanged that month. The MNB plans to publish minutes from its Oct. 20 meeting on Nov. 4, ahead of the CNB meeting on Nov. 5.
