Market Roundup
• France 12-Month BTF Auction 2.613% ,2.670% previous
• France 3-Month BTF Auction 2.234%, 2.219% previous
• France 6-Month BTF Auction 2.421%, 2.476% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (Apr) 4.05M forecast, 3.98M previous
• 14:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Apr)-3.6% previous
• 14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Apr) 105.72 previous
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.610% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.610% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro steadied on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump swiftly rejected Iran's response to a U.S. peace proposal, driving up oil prices and stoking concerns inflation could force the European Central Bank to tighten policy more aggressively.. ECB policymakers have warned they are ready to act if high energy prices spill over into broader inflation.Governing Council member Martin Kocher said in an interview published on Monday that "if the situation does not improve significantly, there will be no avoiding an interest rate move in the near future."Markets fully price two 25-basis point hikes across the ECB's three meetings to September and see around a 50% chance of a third by year-end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investor assessed British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's vow to stay on at the helm.Starmer sought to quell a mounting rebellion in his party and said he would not walk away to avoid plunging Britain into a new political crisis.Labour lawmakers had turned on him after his party suffered the worst local election results for a governing party in more than three decades.the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer began a political fightback following heavy local election setbacks, placing closer European ties at the centre of his government reset strategy. Starmer faces increasing pressure from within the Labour Party, including criticism from a former minister, ahead of a key speech on Monday and Wednesday’s “King’s Speech,” which is expected to outline the government’s legislative agenda. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3658(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3701(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3571(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3532(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar retreated from early gains on Monday as deteriorating prospects for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement boosted demand for the greenback.U.S. President Donald Trump described Iran’s latest response as “totally unacceptable,” while Iranian officials reportedly dismissed Washington’s stance, deepening fears of prolonged geopolitical tensions.Australia’s government will unveil its annual budget on Tuesday, with officials pledging spending restraint to help curb inflation.Markets expect a smaller-than-forecast deficit and potential changes to investment tax rules that critics say favour wealthy property investors.On the data front, Australia will release first-quarter wages data as policymakers assess whether another interest rate hike is needed to cool demand. Forecasts point to wage growth rising 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, unchanged from the previous reading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7280(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7297(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7229(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.711(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as greenback firmed on safe-haven demand after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to his peace proposal. U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran's response to a U.S. proposal for peace talks, dashing hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that has paralysed maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and driven up global energy prices.The ongoing war with Iran and its shock to oil prices and supplies have rocketed to the top of the list of concerns for financial stability, according to a semi-annual Federal Reserve report released on Friday.Investors are now looking out for April's U.S. Consumer Price Index data, due later this week, for further clues on the Fed's monetary policy direction.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.16(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 153.18(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares were muted on Monday, as stalled U.S.-Iran peace negotiations pushed oil prices higher and weighed on risk appetite.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.83percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s swift rejection of Iran’s response to a peace proposal stoked inflation concerns and weighed on the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,692.49 per ounce, as of 8:45 a.m. EDT (1245 GMT). U.S. gold futures lost 0.6% to $4,701.30.
Brent crude futures which are around 45% higher than before the U.S. and Israel began strikes on Iran on February 28, jumped as much as 4.6% overnight and were last at $103.75 a barrel, up 2.4% on the day.
