Market Roundup
• German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) -1.1%, -0.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -0.2%, -2.8% previous
• Swiss CPI (MoM) (Jul) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• Swiss CPI (YoY) (Jul) 0.4%, 0.5% previous
• Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.3, 52.5 forecast, 52.2 previous
• France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.8, 50.0 forecast, 50.0 previous
• Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.2, 52.2 forecast, 52.2 previous
• Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.9, 52.0 forecast, 52.0 previous
• Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 54.3, no forecast, 53.8 previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.9, 52.8 forecast, 52.8 previous
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 53.9, 53.8 forecast, 53.9 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.6, 54.0 forecast, 53.3 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) 52.8, no forecast, 49.7 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) 71.1, 70.0 forecast, 73.0 previous
• US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Jul) 56.7, no forecast, 56.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.815% previous
• 16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.945% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower against dollar on Monday as signs of de-escalating tensions in the Middle East dragged euro lower. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran will happen on Monday but declined to set a deadline for an agreement after earlier saying he had called off an imminent attack in hopes of quickly reaching a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resolve the impasse over Tehran's nuclear capabilities.Trump's apparent de-escalation after days of threats of new attacks from each side was the latest twist in the war. Attacks have spread across the Gulf to the Red Sea and even a Mediterranean facility in Egypt. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : Sterling dipped on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, prompting traders to trim recent gains in the pair.Broader market sentiment remains driven by geopolitical developments, with ongoing uncertainty likely to keep currency markets volatile and range-bound. On the data front,British manufacturing activity expanded for a ninth straight month in July but at the slowest pace in four months, according to S&P Global purchasing managers' data that points to a renewed impact from the Iran war towards the end of last month. Investors are now turning their attention to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to be the next major catalyst for GBP/USD and broader dollar direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USDThe Australian dollar edged lower on Monday, giving up momentum as concerns over further Japanese yen intervention faded after Japan and the U.S. confirmed last week's coordinated currency action and pledged to curb excessive yen volatility.The Aussie also came under pressure after China's manufacturing activity slowed. The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI eased to 50.9 in July from 51.7 in June, below the 51.5 forecast, pointing to softer factory activity and weaker demand.Investors are now focused on Australia's June and second-quarter household spending data for fresh signals on consumer demand and the domestic economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as traders stayed alert for further intervention after Japan and the United States carried out a rare joint currency operation.Japan's Finance Ministry said the intervention, coordinated with the U.S. Treasury on Friday, was intended to counter excessive volatility and disorderly moves in the yen, adding that authorities remain prepared to take further action if needed.Despite the intervention, the yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan's gradual pace of policy tightening has kept yield differentials with other major economies wide. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.3` (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.88.On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.25(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Monday as oil prices tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump said talks with Iran were expected later in the day, raising hopes that diplomacy could ease Middle East tensions and prevent further escalation of the conflict.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.59 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Monday as optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement sent oil prices sharply lower, tempering inflation fears and expectations of prolonged high interest rates.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,052.96 per ounce, as of 1221 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $4,051.70. The precious metal posted its first monthly rise in five in July, rising about 1%.
Oil prices plunged more than $5 a barrel on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump held off on launching fresh strikes against Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, despite Tehran saying no talks were planned.
Brent crude futures were down $4.49, or 5.11%, to $83.44 at 1315 GMT, having retraced some losses from a three-week low hit earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $79.28 a barrel, down $5.39, or 6.37%.
