Market Roundup
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec) 0.3%, 3.0% forecast, 3.2% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast,3.0% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.2% previous
• Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 6.0%, 3.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Oct)-0.5% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Oct) 1.1% forecast,1.4% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Oct)0.1% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Oct)1.7% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (Oct) 435.4 previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•14:45 US Chicago PMI (Dec) 39.8 forecast, 36.3 previous
•15:30 US Texas Services Sector Outlook (Dec)-2.3 previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Dec)-2.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped against dollar on Tuesday ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's December meeting. The minutes are expected to shed fresh light on disagreements among policymakers over a decision to reduce short-term rates a third straight time and signal a near-term hold on rates in 2026.In contrast to the Fed, markets are not pricing in any policy action from the European Central Bank at all in 2026.Influential ECB rate-setter Isabel Schnabel said last week that she expects no interest rate hike in the foreseeable future. Earlier in the month, Schnabel had said she expected the next move from the ECB to be a hike, pushing up borrowing costs across the region. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1793(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1731(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1680(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling eased against the dollar on Tuesday as markets paused ahead of the year-end holiday period. Trading has been thin around the Christmas holiday period in Britain, and remains so in the run-up to the New Year holiday. That has left sterling still largely shaped by the Bank of England meeting earlier in December. The BoE cut interest rates after a narrow vote by policymakers, but it signalled that the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs might slow further. Should that materialise, that would see the pound remain supported versus other currencies, particularly the dollar, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to continue easing next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3499(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3529(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3338(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as slide in precious metals from gold to silver halted supporting Australian dollar. Liquidity across most markets is thin in a holiday-shortened week, which exacerbated volatile price swings in silver and other precious metals overnight.Continued gains across commodities, especially gold and copper both of which are major export earners for Australia have supported the Australian dollar. Price of gold bounced 0.8% on Tuesday, after losing 4.4% overnight. Silver also rebounded 3%.Looking ahead to the next year, the Australian dollar is expected to get some boost from the diverging interest rate outlooks at home and abroad. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6726(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6654(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6609(38.2%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Tuesday, but gains were limited as markets assessed the timing of further Japan rate hikes and the risk of intervention. Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need for further rate hikes, minutes showed, after the bank raised its policy rate earlier this month to a 30-year high of 0.75% from 0.5%.Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said last week Japan has a free hand to counter excessive yen moves, with similar official comments helping check the currency’s recent weakness against the dollar.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Thursday that the central bank is ready to keep raising rates if economic and inflation conditions warrant, lending further support to the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.80(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.91 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 155.61 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark share index extended its record run on Tuesday, led by banking and commodity stocks, though moves were muted amid thin year-end trading.
At (GMT 13:18),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.54 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.44 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold and other precious metals rebounded on Tuesday after a sharp selloff, as persistent global risks refocused attention on bullion’s strongest annual performance in over four decades.
Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,387.29 per ounce at 1127 GMT. On Monday it posted its biggest daily percentage loss in more than two months in a retreat from Friday's record high of $4,549.71, which analysts blamed on profit taking.U.S. gold futures were up 1.3% at $4,401.90.
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as investors weighed fading hopes of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and rising Middle East tensions around Yemen.
Brent crude futures for February delivery , which expire on Tuesday, were up 24 cents, or 0.39%, at $62.18 a barrel at 1315 GMT. The more active March contract was up 26 cents, or 0.42%, at $61.75.
