Market Roundup
• UK Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 2.5%, 2.1% forecast, 4.8% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Feb): 3.4%, 2.9% forecast, 5.9% previous
• UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): -0.4%, -0.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
• UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb): -0.4%, -0.6% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Spanish CPI (YoY) (Mar): 3.3%, 3.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
• Spanish HICP (YoY) (Mar): 3.3%, 3.9% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Spanish CPI (MoM) (Mar): 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Spanish HICP (MoM) (Mar): 1.5%, 2.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous.
• 14:00 US US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Mar): 54.1 forecast, 56.6 previous.
• 14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Mar): 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous.
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar): 55.5 forecast, 56.6 previous.
• 14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb): 0.4% previous.
• 14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Mar): 57.8 forecast, 56.6 previous.
• 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Feb): 0.2% previous.
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Jan): -26.14B previous.
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Jan): 0.25B previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:00 ECB's Schnabel Speak
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as the Middle East war intensifies and hopes of de-escalation fade.Markets were on edge after another volatile week as U.S. President Donald Trump again extended a deadline for striking Iran's energy facilities, even as Washington and Tehran offered starkly conflicting accounts of diplomatic progress.Safe-haven flows underpinned the dollar, which has also been lifted by rising expectations for a U.S. rate increase this year. The European Central Bank is expected to tightening policy, part of a broader shift in rate expectations that has hammered bonds and pushed yields to multi-year highs this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1566(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1583 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1444(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1413(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD:The British pound eased against the dollar on Friday as fears of a global energy shock from the Middle East war have driven investors into the U.S. currency as a safe haven. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend a pause on strikes against Iran's energy facilities into April and that talks with Iran were going very well, but an Iranian official dismissed the U.S. proposal to end the war as "one-sided and unfair. The Bank of England, which prior to the war had been expected to cut rates twice this year, is now expected to deliver as many as three hikes, according to money markets, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for no change in 2026.Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said on Thursday that he saw a high bar to hiking interest rates and it was preferable to hold borrowing costs until there was greater clarity on the impact on the economy from the war with Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3371(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3398(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3256(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3229(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hovered near a two-month low on Friday as concerns over a prolonged Middle East energy shock weighed on global growth and commodity demand.Investors found some relief after Donald Trump extended his deadline to strike Iranian power plants by 10 days, following an earlier delay.Oil prices rose amid uncertainty around diplomatic efforts, supporting the U.S. dollar. Economists expect inflation to climb, with CPI approaching 4.5% and potentially hitting 5% next quarter if energy prices remain high.Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a May rate hike, with interest rates projected to reach 4.75% by year-end.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7012(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7064(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6940(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6893(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Friday as the yen weakened as Middle East conflict and recent central bank signals fuelled inflation concerns and prompting investors to reassess the path of rate hikes.Japan remains highly vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices due to its heavy reliance on energy imports. Rising oil costs feed into domestic inflation, eroding the real value of fixed-income assets and increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy.Revised output gap data from the Bank of Japan showed demand exceeded supply for a 15th straight quarter, reversing earlier estimates that pointed to prolonged excess supply, and signalling a stronger likelihood of rising prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.87(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.01(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 158.08 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Friday in a broad selloff as investors stayed cautious over the Middle East war, which has heightened inflation risks and dimmed the global economic outlook.
At GMT (13:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.21 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday on dip-buying but remained on track for a fourth straight weekly loss, as gains were capped by rising expectations of U.S. rate hikes amid inflation concerns driven by the Iran war.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,416.90 per ounce as of 9:34 a.m. ET (1334 GMT) but was still set for a weekly loss of 1.6% after touching a four-month low of $4,097.99 earlier in the week.U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 0.8% to $4,411.10.
Oil prices rose on Friday but were still set for their first weekly decline since February 9, after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a pause on attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure, while uncertainty over a ceasefire in the month-long war kept investors cautious.
Brent crude futures rose by $2.85, or 2.64%, to $110.86 a barrel by 1322 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $2.53, or 2.68%, at $97.01.
