Market Roundup
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr)0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 3.3%, 3.3% forecast, 3.2% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 1.6%, 2.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 215K, 211K forecast, 210K previous
• Canada Current Account (Q1): -7.2B, -3.9B forecast, -1.0B previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 3.8%, 3.8% forecast, 3.5% previous
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr): 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 4.40%, 4.30% forecast, 2.70% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.5%, 3.6% forecast, 3.6% previous
•US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr): 7.9%, 4.0% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr): 1.1%, 0.5% forecast, 1.1% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,786K, 1,780K forecast, 1,771K previous
•US Building Permits (Apr): 1.423M, 1.442M forecast, 1.363M previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Mar): 3.50%, 2.85% previous
•US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, 0.3% previous
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Apr): 0.0%, 0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q1): 1.5%, 1.6% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.4%, 1.6% forecast, 1.9% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q1): 4.5%, 4.5% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Apr): -1.1%, 0.4% forecast, 3.9% previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr): 8.1%, -0.3% previous
•US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q1): -0.4%, 5.7% forecast, 4.7% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 209.00K, 211.00K forecast, 202.75K previous
•US Building Permits (MoM) (Apr): 4.4%, 5.8% forecast, -11.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•02:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May) -10.6 previous
•02:00 New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (May) 19.6% previous
•02:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Apr) 0.6% forecast,0.7% previous
•02:30 Australia Housing Credit (Apr) 0.6% previous
• 04:00 New Zealand M3 Money Supply (Apr) 4,55,643.0 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro recovered on Thursday as U.S. dollar fell following reports that the U.S. and Iran have reached a deal to extend their ceasefire and launch further negotiations, although the agreement is pending approval from President Donald Trump.U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, Axios reported on Thursday, citing two U.S. officials. The personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 3.8% in the 12 months through April, the largest rise since May 2023, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday. Separate data showed, the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased marginally last week amid relatively low layoffs, despite the dragging war with Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1659(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1693(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1577(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1561(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling rebounded against the dollar on Thursday as investors cautiously assessed a report that said the U.S. and Iran reached a deal but needed U.S. President Donald Trump's approval.Axios reported that the two countries reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations, but the deal was pending Trump's approval. The move comes a day after they traded strikes. U.S. inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices amid the war with Iran, signalling that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates unchanged for longer.The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in April after shooting up 0.7% in March. However, core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, gained 0.2% in April on a monthly basis after advancing 0.3% in March. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3480(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3524(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3370(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3292(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rebounded from a six-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as the prospect of a deal to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East boosted risk appetite.The U.S. and Iran reached an agreement to extend their ceasefire pending the approval of President Donald Trump, after Iran had targeted a U.S. air base in Kuwait following U.S. strikes on what Washington called an Iranian drone operation.Domestic data showed that Canada's current account deficit widened to C$7.18 billion ($5.18 billion) in the first quarter from a downwardly revised C$1.00 billion deficit in the fourth quarter.Economists expect first-quarter GDP data, due on Friday, to show the economy growing at an annualized rate of 1.5%.The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3780 per U.S. dollar putting it on track for its biggest advance since April 30. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3850(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3898(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3775(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3732(SMA 20)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday after reports the U.S. and Iran had reached an agreement to extend a ceasefire, though several similar reports over the course of the three-month conflict have not resulted in an end to the war.According to four sources familiar with the matter, the agreement would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran's nuclear program.The dollar has swung in recent weeks, in line with the shifting outlook on the Middle East conflict, gaining when markets expect a prolonged stand-off and falling when reports signal a move toward de-escalation. The Japanese yen was up 0.19% against the greenback to 159.22 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.49(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.67(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.27(April 16th low ).
Equities Recap
European shares closed lower on Thursday, though they pared steeper losses after a report on news outlet Axios said the United States and Iran had agreed to extend a ceasefire and begin negotiations..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.75 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.76 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.23 percent.
U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday and European shares pared their losses following reports that the United States and Iran have reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations, considered a welcome development after the two nations exchanged air strikes.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.05percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.58 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.91 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reversed course to gain over 1% on Thursday, rebounding from a two-month low hit earlier in the session, as the U.S. dollar and oil prices eased following news that the U.S. and Iran had reached a ceasefire extension agreement.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,504.07 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. EDT (1731 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since late March.
Oil prices settled mixed on Thursday after a choppy trading session, as traders mulled conflicting reports of progress on a potential deal to extend a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
Brent crude futures for July , which expire on Friday's settlement, closed down 58 cents, or 0.6%, at $93.71 a barrel. The more actively traded August Brent futures were last trading up by 72 cents at $92.97 as of 3:20 p.m. EDT (1720 GMT).
