Market Roundup
• UK Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) (Feb) 0.0%, 0.5% previous
• UK Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 0.0% , 2.8% previous
• Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2%, -0.5% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)-1.4%, -1.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 1.2%, 1.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Dec) -1.2% forecast, -1.0% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.038% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.004% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.031% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:40 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased slightly on Monday as U.S. dollar was steady as soft inflation data bolstered the case for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year.Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in January, giving the Fed additional leeway for policy easing.Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that interest rates could go down, but noted that services inflation remained high.Futures imply 62 basis points of easing over the rest of this year. A raft of economic datais due this week, including inflation readings for the UK, Canada and Japan, as well as preliminary readings of global business activity and U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarteron Friday.The euro traded down 0.01% at $1.1863. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Monday as investor’s awaited key labour market and inflation data later this week, which could influence expectations for further rate cuts from the Bank of England.Employment data due Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday will be closely watched, especially as recent political instability surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer has eased for now. Earlier this month, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% in a narrow 5–4 vote but signaled that borrowing costs could decline if inflation continues to slow.Consumer prices are forecast to rise 3% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since March last year, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at its highest level since December 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday as investors shifted their attention to the upcoming release of the latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia.The minutes, due Tuesday, are expected to offer further insight into the reasoning behind the recent 25 basis point rate hike. The governor previously signalled that a renewed rise in inflation left the central bank with little choice but to tighten policy, noting that the strength in consumer spending and business investment had surprised the board.The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to 3.85% earlier this month, and the forthcoming minutes may reveal how hawkish policymakers were in assessing the economic outlook.Meanwhile, Thursday’s employment report is forecast to show a 20,000 increase in jobs for January, following December’s strong 65,200 gain, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.2%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday as weak fourth-quarter GDP data from Japan weighed on the yen. Government figures showed the world’s fourth-largest economy grew at an annualised pace of just 0.2% in the October–December quarter, well below the median forecast of 1.6%, highlighting fragile economic momentum.The data underscored the challenges facing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her government, with the economy barely expanding during the period. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet in March, with markets assigning around a 20% probability of a rate hike. However, economists surveyed by Reuters expect the central bank to hold off on tightening until July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.70(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.18(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.39 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.40 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
The STOXX 600 index edged higher on Monday, supported by gains in financial stocks ahead of industrial production data, while investors in Europe awaited a fresh round of corporate earnings for insight into the region’s economic health.
At GMT (13:15) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined on Monday, pressured by thin liquidity as key markets in the United States and across Asia were closed for holidays, while a stronger dollar added further downside pressure on bullion.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $5,007.70 per ounce by 0858 GMT, after losing more than 1% earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 0.4% to $5,027.90 per ounce.
Oil prices held steady on Monday as investors assessed the potential impact of upcoming U.S.–Iran talks to ease tensions, while also considering expectations of increased supply from OPEC+.
Brent crude futures edged down 9 cents, or 0.1%, to $67.84 a barrel by 1157 GMT.
