Market Roundup
•Belgium Mar Consumer Confidence -6, -5 previous
•EU Government Budget to GDP -3.6%, -3.6% previous
•EU Government Debt to GDP 88.6%,91.5% previous
•Canada Mar IPPI (MoM) 0.8% ,0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Mar Chicago Fed National Activity 0.15, 0.05 previous
•Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Canada Mar IPPI (YoY) ) 0.8%, -1.7% previous
•Canada Mar RMPI (MoM) 2.9% forecast,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.471% previous
•13:00 French 3-Months BTF Auction 3.814% previous
•13:00 French 6-Months BTF Auction 3.706% previous
•14:00 EU Apr Consumer Confidence -14.0 forecast,-14.9 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.155% previous
Looking Ahead Event And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as dollar gained investors reversed some defensive positions on cooling Middle East tensions. The rethink on Fed easing has led to a general repricing of global rate cut timelines, but expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to start cutting by mid-year are still intact. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, rose 0.19% to 106.28. It was also at a five-month top last week, at 106.51. The euro , which is heading for its biggest monthly drop against the dollar since January, was down 0.15% at $1.06398 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0656(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0675(9EMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0616 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0600 (23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined against the dollar as markets calmed after a week of volatile trading driven by tensions in the Middle East.Investors have cut back their bets in either direction on the pound and hold a fairly neutral stance, based on weekly data from the U.S. markets regulator.Investors are pricing in roughly two quarter-point cuts from the Bank of England this year, compared with fewer than two from the Federal Reserve and with nearly three from the European Central Bank.The next risk event for sterling is the release of preliminary business activity surveys for April on Tuesday. The UK is currently top of the leaderboard of major economies in terms of purchasing managers' surveys.With a reading of 53, above the 50 line that separates growth from contraction, the UK has outperformed even the United States every month so far this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2341 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2387 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2310 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2288 (23.6 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Monday as the market focus switched to fundamentals after Israel and Iran played down the risk of an escalation of hostilities in the region . Data-wise, a March reading of key inflation data is due in the U.S. later in the week, alongside retail sales numbers for the month in Canada. Investors will monitor the datasets for more clues on the timing of interest rate cuts in the year by central banks at home and the U.S. At 12:24 GMT, the dollar was 0.12 percent higher versus the Swiss franc at 0.9108 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9128 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9150 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9079 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9017(50% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen Monday as investors assessed policy and geopolitical developments. The market is laser-focused on the yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy review on Friday. Besides the BOJ meeting and one of the biggest weeks for U.S. earnings releases, investors will also get U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday and the inflation metric the Fed targets, the personal consumption price expenditures (PCE) index. The yen traded around 154.69 per dollar, a whisker away from last week's 34-year low of 154.79 and close enough to the 155-level that is next on traders' radars for possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Strong resistance can be seen at 154.80 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.14 (5 EMA), a break below could take the pair towards 153.44 (38.2% fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Monday with investors bracing for earnings reports from several big banks later in the week, while Portuguese oil firm Galp soared to a 16-year high following a positive update to its gas exploration in Namibia.
At (GMT 12:00 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.79 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.66 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated 2% on Monday as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict boosted investors' risk appetite, lowering bullion's safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was down 2% at $2,354.61 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 2.4% to $2,357.00.
Global benchmark Brent slipped on Monday though it remained above $86 a barrel as traders turned their focus back to inflation with tensions in the Middle East having so far left actual oil supplies unperturbed.
Brent futures were down 77 cents to $86.52 a barrel by 1227 GMT. The front-month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 46 cents to $82.68 a barrel in tepid trade.
