Market Roundup
• France HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.0, 51.0 forecast, 51.2 previous
•France HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 50.0, 51.0 forecast, 51.2 previous
•France HCOB France Services PMI (Jul) 49.8, 47.5 forecast, 46.8 previous
•France HCOB France Composite PMI (Jul) 49.6, 47.2 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.2, 50.4 forecast, 50.3 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Services PMI (Jul) 49.6, 49.0 forecast, 48.6 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Jul) 51.2, 49.8 forecast, 49.5 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.0, 51.5 forecast, 51.4 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Jul) 51.6, 49.8 forecast, 49.4 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Jul) 51.9, 50.3 forecast, 50.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 51.8, 49.4 forecast, 48.8 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 52.1, 49.7 forecast, 49.3 previous
•UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 52.8, 52.0 forecast, 52.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Jun) -1.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
• 12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.2%, -0.3% previous
• 12:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Jun) 33.4% previous
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Jun) 13.6% previous
• 12:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.4% forecast, 1.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.1% previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 54.4 forecast, 53.9 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Jul) 51.3 forecast, 51.2 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Jul) 51.9 previous
•15:00 US New Home Sales (Jun) 609K forecast, 580K previous
•15:00 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Jun) -7.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 16:30 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro gave up early gains on Friday as escalating tensions in the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran kept investors cautious ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged.Market sentiment remained fragile after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to "hold Iran responsible" for any further attacks. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis said they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, which has been rerouting oil exports via pipeline to bypass Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Markets are pricing in an 81% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while signalling that another rate increase in September remains a possibility.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD : The pound was little changed on Friday as softer inflation data and escalating Middle East tensions prompted investors to reassess positions ahead of next week's Bank of England policy meeting.Sterling edged up to $1.3318 against the dollar but remained on track for a weekly loss of around 1%, extending its pullback after reaching its highest level since May last week.The currency's outlook remains shaped by competing forces, with expectations for further interest rate hikes offset by uncertainty over the UK's fiscal outlook.Investors are also awaiting greater clarity on Prime Minister Andy Burnham's fiscal plans. While Finance Minister John Healey is viewed as a steady hand, markets remain in a wait-and-see mode.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Friday but gains were limited as risk sentiment deteriorated as escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities kept investors cautious.President Donald Trump on Thursday vowed "major military punishment" against Iran and its Houthi allies after the Yemen-based militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, marking a sharp escalation in regional tension. Trump warned that any further assaults on international shipping or U.S. allies would trigger a forceful military response, raising concerns that the conflict could broaden further.Traders will now turn their attention to Australia's second-quarter CPI report due on Wednesday, which is expected to play a crucial role in shaping RBA policy expectations.Markets imply a 40% chance the RBA will lift the 4.35% cash rate in August, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, with a move by November almost fully priced. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7026 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6960(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6917(July 17th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near fresh four-decade low as repeated warnings of possible intervention failing to curb the currency’s weakness amid broad US dollar strength.Markets largely ignored Japan's Finance Minister's warning of potential currency market intervention, as well as reports suggesting Bank of Japan policymakers are willing to accelerate the pace of rate hikes.Expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike in October strengthened after a Bloomberg report said BOJ officials are open to raising interest rates faster than economists currently expect.Broader market fundamentals continue to support the U.S. dollar, with escalating Middle East tensions boosting demand for the greenback as a safe-haven asset. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rebounded on Friday after posting their biggest one-day decline in two weeks, supported by encouraging corporate earnings as investors weighed the impact of higher oil prices on monetary policy.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.36 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.08 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.48 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices tumbled more than 3% on Friday but remained on track for strong weekly gains as concerns over Red Sea supply disruptions and the escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran continued to support the market.
Brent crude futures fell nearly 4% to $96.70 a barrel on Friday after settling above $100 in the previous session for the first time since May, as traders locked in profits following a sharp rally sparked by Houthi attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
Gold edged higher on Friday, recovering from earlier losses as oil prices retreated, while investors monitored Middle East developments for clues on inflation risks and the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,061.36 per ounce by 1115 GMT, after dropping about 0.6% earlier, while U.S gold futures for August delivery for August delivery gained 0.3% to $4,063.60.
