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Eurozone pick-up in credit cycle likely continued in February

Euro-area credit growth will continue to gain traction, forecasts Standard Chartered Research. M3 money supply likely expanded by 4.2% y/y in February, up from 4.1% prior. Euro-area corporations are still deleveraging; h…

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Euro-area credit growth will continue to gain traction, forecasts Standard Chartered Research.

  • M3 money supply likely expanded by 4.2% y/y in February, up from 4.1% prior. 
  • Euro-area corporations are still deleveraging; however, the pace is slowing. 
  • Euro-area loans to non-financial corporations likely declined by 0.7% y/y versus a 0.9% decline prior. 
  • The strong third allotment of the Targeted Long Term Refinancing Operation (TLTRO) showed that euro-area banks expect loan demand to pick up.
  • This is supported by the European Central Bank's most recent banking survey which showed rising demand for loans and less tight lending criteria. 
  • We believe demand for credit will continue to rise as investors see stronger growth ahead, supported by lower oil prices, accommodative monetary policy and a weak euro.

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