An export-based model from Bernstein estimates Samsung Electronics generated more high-bandwidth memory (HBM) revenue than SK hynix in July-September 2026, a possible shift from the latest published market-share data.
Investing.com and The Korea Herald reported the estimates at $8.7 billion for Samsung and $7.6 billion for SK hynix, increases of 33% and 11%, respectively, from the second quarter. The difference is $1.1 billion. The figures are model estimates, not company-reported results.
The reports described Bernstein’s approach as a regression analysis of South Korean export data. The Korea Herald cautioned that customs records offer only an indirect view of the market: they do not show HBM selling prices or determine which producer has stronger technology.
Counterpoint Research’s latest published figures put SK hynix’s share of global HBM revenue at 50% in the second quarter of 2026, against Samsung’s 33%. In the first quarter, the companies held 58% and 21%, respectively. The shift continues Samsung’s second-quarter share gains, although the shares describe the prior quarter, not Bernstein’s third-quarter revenue estimates.
HBM stacks memory chips close to processors to move data quickly for AI computing. Samsung said it began mass production and commercial shipments of HBM4 on Feb. 12, 2026. SK hynix said it started mass shipments in the second quarter and planned to increase production in the second half of the year. Counterpoint said HBM3E still accounted for most HBM revenue in the second quarter.
Korea Customs Service (KCS) data put South Korea’s total semiconductor exports at about $60.5 billion in September 2026. The figure covers all semiconductors, not HBM alone.
Samsung’s preliminary guidance put third-quarter consolidated sales at about 195 trillion won and operating profit at about 107.4 trillion won, pending external audit. Its earnings call is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET Wednesday, Oct. 28 (10 a.m. Thursday in Korea); SK hynix’s call is set for 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, Oct. 27 (9 a.m. Wednesday in Seoul). The companies’ consecutive-day earnings schedule is the next opportunity to hear their reported results.
