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Official stance in US monetary policy is that it will be data-dependent and the FOMC members will probably take the opportunity to hike rates in the final meeting of the year, if inflation data and financial conditions assure. Nevertheless, FED has indicated any further hikes would be gradual.
Let's look at the market pricing of hikes over next few meetings.
Current FED interest rate is at 0 - 0.25%.
- December, 2015 meeting - Market is attaching 30% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% and 70% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%.
- January, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 25% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 64% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5% and 10% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%.
- March, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 15% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 48% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 33% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75% and 4% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1%
- April, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 13% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 43% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 35% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 8% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 1% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
- June, 2016 meeting - Market is attaching 8% probability that rates will remain 0 - 0.25% , 33% probability that rates will move to 0.25-0.5%, 38% probability that rates will be at 0.5-0.75%, 17% probability that rates will be at 0.75-1% and 3% probability that rates will be at 1-1.25%.
