A 100-basis-point rate cut is the average forecast in Türkiye’s latest central bank survey, but Societe Generale expects policymakers to hold rates on Oct. 22, FXStreet reported.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) left its one-week repo rate at 37% on Sept. 10. Respondents to its October survey put the rate at 36% after the next meeting. That is a forecast from survey participants, not a decision by the central bank.
FXStreet reported that Societe Generale’s strategists weighed weaker growth and strained liquidity against inflation expectations that have eased slowly. Their forecast of a hold differs from the survey average.
Türkiye’s consumer prices rose 29.73% in September from a year earlier, the Turkish Statistical Institute said. In the CBRT survey, participants’ expectation for inflation at the end of 2026 edged up to 29.63% from 29.61% in the previous survey.
The CBRT said in September that weak domestic demand was limiting the effect of supply shocks on prices. It also identified elevated energy prices as an inflation risk and said it would assess the outlook at each meeting.
Separately, index provider MSCI on Oct. 15 froze specified increases, additions and upward moves for Turkish equities in its indexes. MSCI said investors were concerned that coordinated trading and fund-held stakes in smaller companies could make estimates of publicly tradable shares less reliable.
The restriction affects securities that otherwise might have received those index changes. MSCI raised the transparency concerns in its June market classification review. Turkish authorities have since changed how some fund holdings count toward publicly tradable shares, but MSCI wants evidence of sustained enforcement and disclosures investors can verify.
MSCI said insufficient progress by June 2027 could lead to a consultation on moving its Turkey indexes from Emerging Market to Frontier or Standalone Market status. It has announced no reclassification.
The BIST 100 fell 2.49% on Oct. 19 to close at 11,430.14 points.
The CBRT’s rate decision is due Oct. 22, followed by the scheduled release of October consumer prices on Nov. 3.
