The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release September personal consumption expenditures inflation and its third-quarter growth estimate Thursday, Oct. 29, while FXStreet says TD Securities expects core prices to have risen 3.1% over the year.
FXStreet reported Monday that TD Securities forecasts core PCE prices to rise 0.32% from August. The bank also projects a 0.49% monthly gain and a 3.6% annual increase in the headline index, with energy costs seen as the main contributor. Its forecast for market-based core PCE is a 0.34% monthly rise. These are forecasts, not official September results.
August’s BEA release put the headline PCE index 0.3% above July and 3.4% higher than a year earlier. Its core measure, which excludes food and energy, gained 0.2% for the month and 3.0% year over year. The Federal Reserve closely watches core PCE as it conducts monetary policy.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a separate measure, rose 0.6% from August after seasonal adjustment and 3.7% on an unadjusted 12-month basis. Gasoline prices climbed 9.1% that month; the CPI figures are separate from TD Securities’ PCE forecast.
For growth, TD Securities projects real GDP will expand at a 2.5% annualized quarter-over-quarter pace in the third quarter. The BEA’s latest estimate put second-quarter growth at 2.2% at an annualized rate. FXStreet reported that the bank expects household spending to keep supporting output at a slower pace, while AI is a major support for fixed investment.
The BEA’s September Personal Income and Outlays report and advance estimate of third-quarter GDP are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday, Oct. 29.
