FXStreet reported TD Securities strategist Ryan McKay’s assessment that crude was accumulating on tankers while land stocks fell and refined products remained short, leaving global oil supply signals at odds.
FXStreet said McKay estimated a recent crude surplus of 2 million to 3 million barrels a day and a global petroleum-product deficit exceeding 2 million barrels a day. The outlet said crude was building mainly at sea as onshore commercial inventories declined. Its Nov. 3 item gave no measurement window or calculation method for the estimates.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said observed global oil stocks fell by 95 million barrels in August. Its tally since February showed a net decline of 507 million barrels, equivalent to an average 2.8 million barrels a day. The IEA’s balance put global oil deficits at 2.2 million barrels a day in the second quarter of 2026 and 1.7 million in the third; those quarterly figures use different periods from FXStreet’s recent estimate.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show commercial crude oil stocks, excluding lease stocks, dropped 15.773 million barrels over five weeks. They went from 426.398 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 18 to 410.625 million for the week ending Oct. 23. The series covers U.S. stocks, not global inventories.
Kpler’s Oct. 1 analysis put a broader regional flow measure near 18.5 million barrels a day, around pre-conflict levels. The measure counted bypass routes and excluded Iranian loadings. By comparison, the IEA put Strait of Hormuz traffic at an average 7.6 million barrels a day in August, 13.1 million below pre-war levels. The figures cover different routes and periods.
Kpler said higher freight and security expenses were keeping delivered crude costs above pre-conflict levels despite better access to Middle Eastern barrels. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a small boat placed two explosive devices on a tanker’s hull near Khasab, Oman, on Oct. 29; it did not identify those responsible.
