FXStreet reported Tuesday that TD Securities expects the U.S. dollar to ease slightly by year-end if U.S. stocks keep trailing overseas markets, making relative equity performance central to the bank’s currency outlook.
In an excerpt published Nov. 10, FXStreet said analysts viewed the dollar’s rise during the prior week’s equity retreat as smaller than they had expected.
On Nov. 5, the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.5% and the S&P 500 lost 4.4% by the U.S. close, Cboe Global Markets said. Franklin Templeton Institute described the dollar’s trading as broadly steady that day. The contrast shows that major stock losses did not coincide with a marked dollar advance, but it does not establish that equity returns caused the currency’s moves or that investors have abandoned it as a haven.
In a separate April 20 report, TD Securities connected broad dollar moves to relative equity performance and said the currency had become less reliable as a refuge during market stress. EconoTimes previously covered a similar TD Securities view on the dollar’s sensitivity to U.S. stocks.
TD Asset Management placed recent volatility in a wider technology context. It said parts of technology and AI infrastructure had faced pressure since early October, while AI shares had seen intermittent retreats dating to mid-June. The firm linked investor concern to crowded AI exposure, high valuations and questions about how much financing projects would require and what returns they could generate. It said well-capitalized hyperscalers and diversified supply-chain companies were better able to absorb extra costs or delays, while developers with more leverage faced greater pressure.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said payrolls increased by 165,000 in October and unemployment was 4.1%. The next scheduled gauge is the October consumer price index report, due Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET (13:30 UTC). The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8-9.
