Fed Pause Fails to Lift Dollar — USD/CHF Pulls Back to 0.76822, Bears in Control

USDCHF showed a minor pullback after Fed rate pause. Having made a high of 0.77270 yesterday, it is currently trading at 0.76822.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC decided at its January 28, 2026 meeting to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, reflecting confidence in a solidly expanding economy with resilient consumer spending, solid growth, low but stabilizing job gains, and an unemployment rate showing signs of stabilization, while inflation remains somewhat elevated above the 2% goal. The Committee emphasized elevated uncertainty and balanced risks to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, committing to monitor incoming data closely—including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, expectations, financial conditions, and global developments—and stands ready to adjust policy if risks emerge that could hinder progress. The decision passed with support from Chair Jerome Powell and most members (a 10-2 vote), but Governors Stephen I. Miran and Christopher J. Waller dissented, preferring a 0.25 percentage point rate cut following the prior 75 basis points of cumulative reductions. Implementation details include the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65%, primary credit rate at 3.75%, repo and reverse repo rates at 3.75% and 3.5% respectively, and continued short-term Treasury purchases and principal rollovers to ensure ample reserves and smooth market functioning.

Technical Analysis Points to Further Bullishness

The pair is trading below the 55-EMA,200-EMA, and 365-EMA on the 4-hour chart, indicating a bearish trend. The immediate resistance is at  0.7700; any break above targets  0.7765/0.7800/0.7865/0.7925/0.7965/0.8000.

Support Levels and Potential Declines

On the downside, near-term support is around 0.7660; any violation below will drag the pair to 0.7600/0.7540/0.7500.

Indicators (4-hour chart)

CCI (50) - Bearish

Directional Movement Index -  Neutral

Trading Strategy Recommendation

It is good to sell on rallies around 0.7748-50 with SL around 0.7800 for a TP of 0.7500.