France’s plan to reduce its public deficit faces a renewed parliamentary test next week as the TEC 10 yield rose above 5% and businesses reported disruption from unrest.
Agence France Trésor, France’s debt management agency, said its TEC 10 index was 4.99% on Oct. 21, 5.13% on Oct. 22 and 5.05% on Oct. 23. The index measures an interpolated yield for a notional bond with an exact 10-year maturity.
The government’s proposed 2027 budget aims to bring the public deficit to 5% of gross domestic product, from a projected 5.4% in 2026. It assumes economic growth of 0.5% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, and sets out €54 billion in fiscal adjustment, including €43 billion in measures in the draft budget and social-security financing bill. Those figures are government targets and projections, not enacted outcomes.
The National Assembly rejected the 2027 social-security financing bill at first reading on Oct. 23. Debate on the first part of the 2027 budget is scheduled to resume Tuesday, Oct. 27. ING senior economist Charlotte de Montpellier projected slower growth than the government, at 0.3% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027. In an Oct. 20 analysis, she said prolonged unrest, weaker confidence or greater market tension could weigh further on growth.
Carrefour reported third-quarter like-for-like sales growth of 2.3% overall and 1.2% in France, then cut its 2026 outlook on Oct. 20. The retailer cited unrest and higher energy costs, and said foot traffic, opening hours, security and logistics costs were affected. It also lowered its 2026 France capital-expenditure target to €1.6 billion from €1.7 billion.
The Union des Entreprises Transport et Logistique de France said transport and logistics companies and workers had been directly targeted, warning that repeated disruption could interrupt supply chains and raise costs. The hospitality association Umih said businesses had faced property damage and interrupted operations, with employees and customers also affected.
Past disruptions have also affected measured economic activity. The Banque de France estimated that strikes in March and April 2023 reduced first-quarter growth by about 0.1 percentage point, followed by a similar-sized rebound in the second quarter. INSEE estimated the Yellow Vest movement could have lowered fourth-quarter 2018 growth by 0.1 point, while noting the estimate depended in part on how long the protests lasted.
The CGT said it would support peaceful demonstrations on Oct. 24 where conditions allowed and urged workers to decide whether to extend strike action on Nov. 5, an inter-union day of strikes and demonstrations.
